644 DR. BABASAHEB AMBEDKAR : WRITINGS AND SPEECHES
to come ?—Well, in my investigations I did some of them in
1923, when I was writing the book I had occasion to read some articles which appeared in the Harvard Business Barometer Series and I rather get the impression that there was no likelihood of any fall in the production of gold. And besides, my point is this, that the countries of the world are using so much paper that whatever gold supply we have is really very large. Those countries therefore that can avoid economising gold might as well do it to their own benefit and to the benefit of the rest of the world.
I am not quite sure that I follow the latter part of your reply ?—What I say is that although the production of gold may not be increased physically from the mines, yet the use of substitutes for gold in modern days is on such a vast scale that the quantity of gold in the present circulation might appear to be large enough for a long period for the transactions of the world even without new additions from the mines.
You have no more statistical calculations which you would care to put before the Commission as to your estimate of the future supply of gold ?—No, I have made no estimates.
This is a matter, of course, which is of great importance for the consideration of the Commission, so let me put to you one or two estimates that I have been supplied with from other sources. These are estimates as to the effect upon general gold prices of the movement of the relation between the demand for gold and the supply of gold for a period of years. They are forecasts made at various dates by authorities, and they are referred to the year 1930. What is done is to measure the effect of the gold supply upon prices by trying to forecast the general level of prices in 1930 by reference to 1913 as the 100 standard, and thus to see what the future of the world in this regard is. I have here an estimate of Sir James Wilson, made in 1921, who estimates that the result of these factors will be that the general price level in
1930 will be stable at 115. That is a substantial fall, you see from the present figure which is round about 158. Then there is that estimate to which you have already referred, the Harvard Business Barometer, in 1922, which estimates that in 1930 the general price level should stand about